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forum.hr . Model sirjenja zaraze
1). When will more than 10,000 confirmed coronavirus cases be completely
cured in Hubei?
Answer: The model predicts that almost all will be cured on April 1. (Fig. 1)
2). When was the earliest case in Hubei?
Answer: We find that there was already an infection on November 24. (Fig. 2)
3). How many people are infected per person (basic reproduction number)?
Answer: It is 3.8 when not under control, 0.5 after closing Wuhan city and 0.1
after closing of Wuhan community (Fig. 3)
4). What is the average incubation period of the virus?
Answer: 6 days. (Fig. 4)
5). If it is controlled 5 days in advance, how much is the infection? What if
control is lagging 5 days?
Answer: If 5 days in advance, the number of infected people will be 28000, 42%
of the current number of confirmed cases. If the control is delayed for 5 days, it will
reach 156000 people, 2.26 times of the current level. (Currently diagnosed 68000 in
Hubei) (Fig. 5)
6). What distribution does the daily infection curve satisfy, which day reaches the
peak, is February 12?
Answer: Normal distribution, the actual peak appeared on February 8. In the
official data, because the clinical diagnosis was not added before the February 12, the
data surged on the February 12 (jump to 14,840 people, cumulative results),
indicating that the previously published data did not reflect the actual infection situation
7). The average number of days from diagnosis to cure?
Answer: In the stage of Hubei epidemic, it takes an average of 21 days for
patients from diagnosis to cure. (Fig. 1)
International epidemic situation except China
8). How to predict the epidemic situation in South Korea?
Answer: At present, the epidemic situation in South Korea is basically under
control. According to the model, South Korea will be basically under control by the
end of March. It was found on January 7 that there was infection in South Korea
(confirmed by official broadcast January 20. In addition, we found that the basic
reproduction number before the control was 4.2 in Korea and 0.1 after the control.
(Fig. 7)
9). How to predict the development of Italian epidemic?
Answer: At present, 15000 people in Italy are infected. If not controlled, it will
increase dramatically. It will reach 200000 by the end of March. In fact, Italy began to
control on March 8. According to China's basic reproduction number (0.1) and South
Korea's basic reproduction number (0.1), it will reach 84000 by the end of March. At
present, the basic reproduction number in Italy is 4.2. According to the model
inversion, the infection was found on January 13 in Italy (2 cases were confirmed by
the official broadcast January 31).